Customize Consent Preferences

We use cookies to help you navigate efficiently and perform certain functions. You will find detailed information about all cookies under each consent category below.

The cookies that are categorized as "Necessary" are stored on your browser as they are essential for enabling the basic functionalities of the site. ... 

Always Active

Necessary cookies are required to enable the basic features of this site, such as providing secure log-in or adjusting your consent preferences. These cookies do not store any personally identifiable data.

No cookies to display.

Functional cookies help perform certain functionalities like sharing the content of the website on social media platforms, collecting feedback, and other third-party features.

No cookies to display.

Analytical cookies are used to understand how visitors interact with the website. These cookies help provide information on metrics such as the number of visitors, bounce rate, traffic source, etc.

No cookies to display.

Performance cookies are used to understand and analyze the key performance indexes of the website which helps in delivering a better user experience for the visitors.

No cookies to display.

Advertisement cookies are used to provide visitors with customized advertisements based on the pages you visited previously and to analyze the effectiveness of the ad campaigns.

No cookies to display.

Week in Review: March 14, 2025

March 17, 2025

Recap & Commentary

Markets ended lower for the fourth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 briefly entering correction territory, weighed down by erratic trade policy announcements and attendant uncertainty and concerns. The S&P 500’s correction, defined as a pullback of 10% or more from recent highs, was its first since 2023. Corrections, however, are not all that uncommon, occurring once a year on average. According to Barron’s, the average decline for the S&P 500 during a correction is 13%, and the loss is fully recovered within 3-4 months.

Markets were rattled at the start of the week after President Trump refused to rule out the possibility of a recession in 2025 stemming from current trade policies/actions. For economists and investors, the concern is that a recession could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if consumers and business pullback on spending worried about what the future holds.  Recent business and consumer sentiment readings have added to those concerns with small business uncertainty reaching its second highest level on record dating back 50 years, while consumer sentiment plunged in February to its lowest level since November 2022, led by a sharp decline in consumers’ expectation of future economic conditions, which fell to their lowest level since June 2022.

On Wednesday, President Trump’s previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports took effect prompting retaliatory measures from the European Union and Canada. Still unclear is if/when President Trump will implement additional tariffs on copper imports as well as reciprocal tariffs.

Economic Commentary

Consumer and producer inflation showed signs of easing in February. On a monthly basis, headline consumer inflation (CPI) slowed from 0.5% in January to 0.2%, while compared to a year ago, it slowed from 3.0% in January, to 2.8%, its slowest pace since last November. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, slowed from 0.4% in January to 0.2%. Compared to a year ago, it slowed from 3.3% to 3.1%. Despite the smaller price increases, the odds of a Fed rate cut in May and June fell, not rose, on the news, in part because the slower pace of inflation was aided by a 4% decline in airfares, meaning underlying inflationary pressures did not necessarily ease by as much as the headline pace suggested.

Producer prices (PPI) also slowed in February with the headline measure remaining flat for the month after increasing 0.6% in January.  Compared to a year ago, headline PPI inflation slowed from 3.7% in January to 3.2%.  Core PPI actually fell 0.1% for the month while increasing 3.4% from a year ago, down from January’s 3.8% pace.

Consumer sentiment deteriorated further in the first half of March, falling to its lowest level since Nov. 2022. Concerns about trade policy and the potential for higher inflation weighed on consumer’s views of both current and future economic conditions. One-year inflation expectations jumped from 4.3% to 4.9%, the highest level since Nov. 2022, while five-year inflation expectations rose 0.4% to 3.9%, the highest level in 32 years. The large increases will not go unnoticed by the Fed which is sensitive to consumers inflation expectations.

Of Note

Congress avoided a government shutdown by passing a stop gap funding bill to fund the government through September 30, the end of its fiscal year.  The bill will generally maintain funding at 2024 levels with a few slight changes.

Market Indices   (As of 03/14/2025)

S&P 500 -2.3%
Small Caps -1.5%
Intl. Developed -1.2%
Intl. Emerging -0.8%
Commodities 0.2%
U.S. Bond Market -0.1%
10-Year Treas. Yield 4.32%
U.S. Dollar -0.1%
WTI Oil ($/bl) $67
Gold ($/oz) $2,994

The Week Ahead

  • Retail Sales
  • Housing Starts
  • Existing Home Sales
  • Industrial Production
  • Initial Jobless Claims

Insights

Week in Review: March 14, 2025

Recap & Commentary Markets ended lower for the fourth consecutive week, with the S&P 500 briefly entering correction territory, weighed […]

Learn more

Maximize Your Deductions: A Business Owner’s Guide to Reducing Tax Liabilities

Taxes can be complicated for business owners who juggle growth, operations, and personal finances. But by taking advantage of available […]

Learn more

Ready to learn more?
Let’s have a conversation.

Embark on a banking experience tailored to your distinct path, focused on achieving personal and business financial prosperity.

By selecting submit above, you expressly agree to be contacted by First Western Trust Bank using your provided contact information. This express consent overrides any 'do not call' or related 'do not contact' you may have registered with any state or federal agency. Please do not include confidential information in your submission, such as account numbers, tax identification numbers, or login credentials.