Week In Review 11.30.2018

Markets recorded solid gains buoyed by comments from Fed Chair Jay Powell and optimism ahead of the G-20 summit. After celebrating Thanksgiving with its worst week since March, the S&P 500 rebounded with its best week since December 2011.

Markets rallied significantly on Wednesday following comments by Fed Chair Jay Powell that interest rates “remain just below the broad range of estimates of the level that would be neutral for the economy.” After his October comment about rates being “a long way” from neutral, Powell’s comments on Wednesday were seen as “dovish,” and perhaps foretelling that the Fed might not pursue its current forecast of three rate hikes in 2019. However, another interpretation of Powell’s comments was that he was simply stating the obvious. With the Fed Funds rate currently at 2.0-2.25%, it is just 0.25% from the lower bound of the Fed’s neutral rate estimate of 2.5-3.5%. With another 0.25% rate increase in December all but guaranteed, the Fed Funds rate would technically be at the neutral range by year-end.

Minutes from the Fed’s November FOMC meeting reinforced the idea that the Fed will raise rates again in December but thereafter may become less automatic with respect to further rate hikes. The minutes also revealed a discussion about possibly revising the language in post-meeting statements that refer to “further gradual increase” to instead focus on the Committee’s “flexible approach” to incoming data.

The highly anticipated meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi resulted in a truce in the current trade. While few concrete details emerged, the two countries did announce a 90-day moratorium on any new tariffs to allow time to negotiate on a number of issues.