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Week in Review 2.28.2020
March 2, 2020
Week in Review
Week Ending: Friday, February 28, 2020
Recap & Commentary
As of Friday, the World Health Organization had reported 84,000 cases of coronavirus and over 2,800 deaths. A spike in reported infections outside of China, including surges in Italy and South Korea, left investors worried about the spread of the virus. In Japan, all school were closed until April while Switzerland banned all public gatherings and events until further notice. In China, the government employed back-to-work programs, which saw over a third of employees outside of Wuhan returning to work.
Through Friday, 95% of S&P 500 companies had reported fourth quarter earnings. 71% of companies have beaten their earnings estimate and 65% have beaten their revenue estimates. Fourth quarter earnings growth is currently forecasted to be 0.9%.
Economic Bullet Points
Durable Goods Orders declined -0.2% in January but came in well ahead of the expected -1.5% decline. Core orders, a better measure of business spending, increased a solid 1.1%.
GDP for 4Q19 and 2019 was left unrevised at 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.
Inflation, as measured by core PCE, the Fed’s preferred gauge, remained benign in January, rising just 0.1% from December and 1.6% from a year ago.
Consumer income rose 0.6%, in January, up from just 0.1% in December. The gain, the largest in 11 months, included annual cost-of-living increases in Social Security benefits and tax credits tied to the Affordable Care Act. The increase coupled with a 0.2% increase in spending pushed the savings rate to 7.9%. .
Of Note
Market Indices Week of 2/28
S&P 500 | -12.8% |
Small Caps | -13.0% |
Intl. Developed | -9.6% |
Intl. Emerging | -7.2% |
Commodities | -6.9% |
U.S. Bond Market | 0.6% |
10-Year Treas. Yield | 1.16% |
US Dollar | -1.2% |
WTI Oil ($/bl) | $45 |
Gold ($/oz) | $1,579 |
The Week Ahead
- ISM Manufacturing
- ISM Services
- Nonfarm Productivity
- Factory Orders
- Feb. Employment Report
- Trade Balance
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