Week in Review: February 6, 2026

February 10, 2026

Recap & Commentary

Markets (S&P 500) ended the week flat despite heightened volatility, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 for the first time. The tech-heavy NASDAQ fell 1.9% as investors fretted about the impact of new AI models on software companies. Other risker areas of the market also experienced selling pressure illustrated by Bitcoin which briefly fell to a 15-month low.

On Tuesday, generative AI company Anthropic released updates to its AI model Claude, designed to accomplish tasks in a variety of fields including sales, finance, legal, and customer support. The releases renewed fears that AI models may render certain types of software obsolete. While such fears seem premature, they highlight the uncertainty surrounding AI tools and their potential to disrupt different industries. Since peaking in late October, the S&P 500 Software index has fallen 28%, including another 8% decline this past week.

The selloff wasn’t contained just to companies potentially impacted by AI, but also those driving its development. Both Amazon and Google saw their shares decline after announcing plans to spend $200B and $180B, respectively, on AI infrastructure in 2026, renewing investor concerns about the returns on such large investments.

Through Friday, 59% of S&P 500 companies had reported 4Q25 earnings, with 76% of those companies beating their consensus estimate. According to industry group FactSet, consolidated earnings growth for 4Q25 is expected to be 13.0%, which if achieved, would mark the 5th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

Economic Commentary

Economic data was generally positive, apart from employment data which renewed concerns about the health of labor markets. Though the January employment report was delayed until Wednesday, February 11, December  job openings fell to 6.54M, their lowest level since September 2020. The decline reduced the ratio of job openings per unemployed individual to 0.87, its lowest level since February 2021 and less than half the 2.0 recorded in June 2022. In addition, job cuts reported by industry group Challenger, Gray & Christmas, jumped to 108.4K in January, up 118% from January 2025, and the largest January figure since 2009. UPS and Amazon accounted for 42% of the total, having announced cuts of 30K and 16K, respectively.

Data from industry group ISM pointed to continued positive economic activity in January, with notable improvement in manufacturing activity which expanded for the first time in a year and the most since August 2022. The improvement was driven by new orders which grew for the first time in five months, while jumping to their highest level since February 2022. Backlog orders also improved, growing for the first time since September 2022. While employment continued to contract, it did so at its slowest pace in a year. Sustained demand in the form of elevated new and backlog orders in the coming months would likely lead to increased hiring.

The service sector grew in January, unchanged from December’s pace. New orders slowed slightly while employment expanded, albeit modestly, for the second consecutive month, marking the first two-month period of growth in a year.

Consumer sentiment rose in January led by a modest improvement in the consumers’ views on current economic conditions.

Of Note

The US and India agreed to a trade deal in which both countries agreed to lower tariffs on each other. Among other measures, the US will lower the effective tariff on Indian goods from 50% to 18% after India agreed to stop purchasing Russian oil.

Market Indices (As of 02/06/2026)

S&P 500 -0.1%
Small Caps 2.2%
Intl. Developed 0.5%
Intl. Emerging -1.4%
Commodities -2.2%
U.S. Bond Market 0.3%
10-Year Treas. Yield 4.21%
U.S. Dollar 0.7%
WTI Oil ($/bl) $64
Gold ($/oz) $4,975

The Week Ahead

  • January Employment Report
  • Consumer Inflation (CPI)
  • Retail Sales
  • Existing Home Sales
  • Small Business Optimism
  • Initial Jobless Claims

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