Week in Review: October 3, 2025

October 7, 2025

Recap & Commentary

Markets ended the week higher with the S&P 500 closing at a new record high despite the government shutting down for the first time since 2018.

The month and quarter came to a close following Tuesday’s session. The S&P 500 had its best September in 15 years, and the index notched a second straight quarter of gains. Tuesday was also the fiscal year-end for the U.S. government with no full-year funding agreement in place and thus the government shutdown went into effect Wednesday as Congress failed to pass a stopgap measure or the necessary appropriations bill to keep the federal agencies funded. The government shutdown threatens a blackout in crucial economic data that the Fed needs to make its rate decisions, meaning investors and policymakers will rely more on private reports.

Weekly initial jobless claims and the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payroll data was delayed due to the shutdown investors focused on the midweek JOLTs and ADP payroll reports that  remained consistent with other data over the past month indicating that the labor market is slowing.

In other news markets were boosted by the health-care sector following President Trump unveiling plans to launch a government run website for consumers to buy drugs directly from manufacturers. Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla said Pfizer plans to offer its drugs on the site at a reduced rate. OpenAIs secondary share sale bolstered optimism for artificial intelligence which drove tech names higher.

Economic Commentary

The government shut down, which went into effect as of October first, has delayed the release of the weekly jobless claims report and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) September Employment Report. Concerns arose whether the delay of important employment reports could cloud the Federal Reserves path of interest rate cuts, however, most analyst agree that the shutdown won’t change the Fed’s decision for at least the upcoming meeting in October.

Economists turned to Tuesdays JOLTs report showing job openings were little changed in August while hiring was subdued, indicating that demand for workers is slowing. Private payrolls, shown by the ADP report, saw their biggest decline in two and half years during the month of September. Companies shed 32k jobs while economists were expecting an increase of 45k. In addition to the drop in September, the August number was revised from an increase of 54k for the month to a decrease of 3k.

Manufacturing activity continues to shrink according to industry group Institute for Supply Management. Septembers reading of 49.1 is the seventh consecutive reading below the 50 mark in which a reading above that level indicated growth. The new orders index, which is a gauge of future demand, fell back below 50 following one month of growth which had been a lone bright spot from recent reports. The US service sector stalled in September as business activity shrank for the first time since the pandemic.

Of Note

Treasury options pricing suggests that the shutdown that began October first will last at least 10 to as many as 29 days, putting a resolution past the October Fed meeting.

Market Indices (As of 10/03/2025)

S&P 500 1.1%
Small Caps 1.7%
Intl. Developed 2.5%
Intl. Emerging 3.6%
Commodities 0.3%
U.S. Bond Market 0.5%
10-Year Treas. Yield 4.12%
U.S. Dollar -0.4%
WTI Oil ($/bl) $61
Gold ($/oz) $3,912

The Week Ahead

  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Trade Balance
  • Initial Jobless Claims

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