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Week in Review 10.18.2019
October 21, 2019
Week in Review
Week Ending: Friday, October 18, 2019
Recap & Commentary
With Brexit, investors took more of a wait-and-see approach, even as a flurry of activity resulted in an agreement between the U.K. and EU. The caution was warranted, as the deal was voted down on Saturday by Parliament. As a result, current PM Johnson was forced to request an extension from the EU until January 2020, something he swore never to do. The extension request came even as Johnson continued to champion the idea of the U.K. leaving the EU by October 31. Parliament is expected to vote again on the deal on Monday.
Through Friday, 15% of companies within the S&P 500 had reported earnings. Thus far, 84% have beaten their earnings estimates, while 64% have beaten their revenue estimates. Current estimates are for S&P 500 aggregate earnings to fall -4.7% Y/Y, which would mark the third consecutive quarter of declines.
Economic Bullet Points
Housing Starts fell -9.4% in September. Multifamily unit starts tumbled roughly -30%, which accounted for all of September’s drop. Conversely, starts on single-family homes rose 0.3%, marking their fourth consecutive increase.
Industrial Production fell -0.4% in September, the most in five months, and double the consensus of -0.2%. But the previous month was revised up to 0.8% from 0.6%. The decline last month was exacerbated by the GM strike, which weighed on the output of consumer durables, transit equipment, and durable goods materials. On a y/y basis, core production fell a larger -0.6% y/y and has been down in five of the past six months as manufacturing output continued to contract.
Of Note
Market Indices Week of 10/18
S&P 500 | 0.5% |
Small Caps | 1.6% |
Intl. Developed | 1.4% |
Intl. Emerging | 1.7% |
Commodities | -0.2% |
U.S. Bond Market | 0.0% |
10-Year Treas. Yield | 1.75% |
US Dollar | -1.1% |
WTI Oil ($/bl) | $54 |
Gold ($/oz) | $1,488 |
The Week Ahead
- Existing Home Sales
- New Home Sales
- Durable Goods Orders
- Consumer Sentiment
- Jobless Claims
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