Week in Review: July 11 2025

July 14, 2025

Recap & Commentary

Markets were little changed over the course of the week as investors digested multiple new trade announcements. With almost no economic data to report, the passage of President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill complete, and second quarter earnings just staring, trade was the dominant market driver.

Over the course of the week, Trump threatened higher tariffs on a number of the US’s key trading partners, starting August 1, unless new trade deals are finalized before then.

On Monday, Trump threatened 25% tariffs on goods imported from Japan and S. Korea. On Tuesday, Trump threatened a 50% tariff on all copper imports, in an effort to boost domestic production. Currently the US imports ~50% of the copper it uses. According to S&P Global, the average time to start a copper mine- the period from discovery to production- is ~17 years. Thus, new tariffs won’t result in immediate new domestic production, but could lead to higher copper prices, which set a new record following Trump’s announcement. Still unclear is whether the tariff applies to all countries supplying copper, or a smaller subset. Chile, with whom the US has a free trade agreement, is the world’s largest exporter of the metal.

On Wednesday, Trump threatened 50% tariffs on goods from Brazil, not for economic reasons, but for what he believes is the unfair treatment of former president Jair Bolsonaro, a Trump ally.

On Thursday, Trump threatened a 35% tariff on Canadian goods saying the country needs to do more to prevent fentanyl from entering the US. According to US government data, ~0.2% of all fentanyl seized entering the US in 2024 occurred along the US-Canada border.

On Saturday, Trump threatened 30% tariffs on imports from Mexico and the EU. In his letter to the EU, Trump demanded that the EU drop all tariffs on US goods.

Overall, the announcements suggest Trump intends to take an aggressive stance towards trade ahead of August 1. Unclear is how markets will respond. Of late, they have become less reactive to new trade announcements. Some analysts worry the perceived complacency could leave markets susceptible to a larger pullback, especially if Trump holds fast to his August 1 deadline and does not grant any further extensions, which markets have largely come to expect.

Economic Commentary

According to the New York Federal Reserve, consumer inflation expectations were relatively stable in June. Though near-term (1-year) expectations slowed from 3.2% to 3.0%, 3- and 5-year expectations remained unchanged at 3.0% and 2.6%, respectively. The data suggests that expectations remain “well-anchored,” an important factor for the Fed as it considers monetary policy actions.

Initial jobless claims fell 5K to 227K a seven-week low. Continuing claims continued to rise, reaching a new post-COVID high of 1.97M. The data suggests slowing hiring conditions for those looking for work.

Of Note

On Wednesday, Nvidia’s market cap exceeded $4T, making it the first company to ever reach that level. At its current size, the chip maker, whose products serve as the backbone for many AI models, accounts for 7.5% of the S&P 500.

Market Indices (As of 07/11/2025)

• Consumer Inflation (CPI)
• Producer Inflation (PPI)
• Retail Sales
• Housing Starts
• Consumer Sentiment
• Industrial Production
• Initial Jobless Claims