Week in Review: July 17, 2026

July 20, 2026

Recap & Commentary

Markets ended the week lower dragged down by renewed selling in many of the AI oriented names that have led the market for much of the past two years. That was exemplified by the Philadelphia Semiconductor index comprised of such names as Nvidia, Broadcom, and Micron, which fell 10% for the week, leaving it in bear territory, down 20.2% from its most recent high in late June. In shades of last year’s “DeepSeek” selloff, semi conductors were particularly impacted by an announcement from Chinese AI firm Moonshot that its AI model Kimi K3 could be on par with the best offerings from US firms OpenAI and Anthropic.

Interest rates rose during the week, with the 10-Year yield reaching 4.64% at one point, its highest level since February 2025, pressured by higher energy prices and comments by Fed Chair Kevin Warsh during Congressional testimony that the Fed has “no tolerance” for high inflation.

Fighting between the US and Iran intensified over the course of the week pushing oil up 15.5% to close the week at $82, its highest level since mid-June, just prior to the two countries announcing an agreement to work towards a lasting peace. While the prevailing belief is that both sides ultimately want a lasting peace, the current fighting is widely seen as an attempt by the two adversaries to gain leverage over the other- with the US degrading Iran’s economy and Iran attempting to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed and global energy prices elevated to increase political pressure on the US- before a final peace deal is finalized.

Economic Commentary

 

Inflation eased in June as both consumer and producer prices surprised to the downside vs. economists’ expectations. On a headline basis, consumer prices (CPI) fell 0.4% in June, slowing to 3.5% from a year ago, down meaningfully from May’s 4.2% annual increase. A 5.7% decline in energy prices, led by a 9.7% pullback in gasoline prices, was the largest contributor. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, was flat compared to May and slowed from 2.9% to 2.6% year-over-year.

Producer prices behaved similarly, slowing more than expected on both a headline and core basis. The concern among investors and policy makers, is that renewed Middle East fighting could halt further near-term improvements.

Retail sales rose 0.2% in June, their slowest pace in six months following a strong spring. The deceleration was due in part to consumers spending less on gasoline thanks to a recent pullback in prices. Control sales, which factor directly into the calculation of GDP gained a solid 0.5%.

Housing starts soared 19.0% in June, their largest monthly gain since May 2023, after falling 15.2% in May. The large swings highlight the volatile nature of housing data more than the actual state of the industry. June’s uptick was attributed to a 76% jump in volatile multifamily starts, as single family starts rose just 0.2%.

On Note

According to Bloomberg, the US is considering the creation of an independent regulatory body to review the safety of AI models with industry input. The new entity would report to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) like the way in which the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) does. If approved, the new body might provide greater clarity for AI companies following recent moves by the government to slow the release of advanced AI models.

Market Indices (As of 07/17/2026)

S&P 500 -1.6%
Small Caps -0.5%
Intl. Developed -0.8%
Intl. Emerging -4.1%
Commodities 3.7%
U.S. Bond Market 0.1%
10-Year Treas. Yield 4.55%
U.S. Dollar -0.2%
WTI Oil ($/bl) $82
Gold ($/oz) $4,023

The Week Ahead

  • S&P Manufacturing PMI
  • S&P Services PMI
  • New Home Sales
  • Initial Jobless Claims​

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