Week in Review: April 10, 2026

April 14, 2026

Recap & Commentary

A busy week for economic data was highlighted by the release of March consumer inflation (CPI) data, providing an early read on the economic impact of higher energy prices. On a headline basis, CPI jumped 0.9% in March and 3.3% from a year ago, due to a 10.9% increase in energy prices, led by a 21.2% increase in gasoline prices. Core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by a more modest amount, up 0.2% for the month and 2.6% from a year ago, suggesting the impact of higher energy prices has been relatively contained thus far. However, the concern is that the longer energy prices remain elevated, the greater the likelihood they will eventually seep into the broader economy pushing up prices for a wide array of good and services.

Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, was largely discounted as the data was recorded in February, prior to the outbreak of fighting in the Middle East.

According to industry group ISM, service sector activity continued to expand at a healthy pace in March, led by an improvement in new orders. Employment, however, unexpectedly contracted for the first time in four months, while input prices jumped to their highest level since Oct. 2022, reflecting the impact of higher energy prices.

Fourth quarter GDP growth was revised down to 0.5%, less than half the initial estimate of 1.4%. Though consumer and business spending growth remained healthy at 1.9% and 2.3%, respectively, a 5.6% contraction in government spending shaved 1.0% off headline growth.

On Note

According to the Fed’s March FOMC meeting minutes, tariffs and Middle East fighting could slow progress towards the Fed’s 2% target more than expected and that the risk of inflation running persistently above target had increased.

Market Indices (As of 04/10/2026)

• Producer Inflation (PPI)
• Existing Home Sales
• Industrial Production
• Initial Jobless Claims​