Week in Review: April 17, 2026

April 21, 2026

Recap & Commentary

Markets ended the week higher, with the S&P 500 recording its largest weekly gain in 11 months while closing at a new record high. For the tech-heavy NASDAQ, Friday marked the 13th consecutive day of gains, matching the index’s longest winning streak since 1992. Despite lingering uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire between the US and Iran, investors were heartened by a cease fire announcement between Israel and Lebanon. On Friday, Iran announced that the Straight of Hormuz had reopened to commercial vessels, further boosting investor confidence that fighting between the two sides had largely concluded. Oil prices moved steadily lower over the course of the week, ending at a five-week low.

Despite the burgeoning optimism surrounding a permanent end to the fighting,  events over the weekend cast doubt on the timing of any such deal. On Saturday, Iran reversed course and said the Straight of Hormuz would remain closed until the US lifted its blockade on Iranian ports. In addition, reports emerged that Iranian forces fired on at least two vessels near the strait, while US forces seized an Iranian ship attempting to evade its blockade. In addition, Iran said it would not participate in a second round of talks that the US had hoped to initiate prior to the end of the two-week ceasefire that expires on Tuesday.

This week, investors will turn their attention to the confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh, whom President Trump has nominated to lead the Federal Reserve when current Fed Chair Jay Powell’s term ends in May. At least one Republican Senator on the Senate Banking Committee has indicated he will not vote to advance Warsh’s nomination to the full Senate until the Department of Justice (DOJ) ends its current investigation into Fed Chair Jay Powell, something the DOJ is currently resisting.

Through Friday, 10% of S&P 500 companies had reported 1Q26 earnings, with 88% of those companies beating their consensus estimate. According to industry group FactSet, consolidated earnings growth for 1Q26 is expected to be 13.2%, which if achieved, would mark the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

Economic Commentary

Producer price inflation (PPI), increased far less than expected in March, providing an offset of sorts to the prior week’s large jump in March consumer prices. On a headline basis, PPI rose 0.5% in March, vs. the consensus expectation of 1.1%. Compared to a year ago, prices increased 4.0%, a notable acceleration from the 3.4% annual pace recorded in February, but far less than the expected 4.6% increase. Nonetheless, it was the largest increase since March 2023. Increases in core PPI, excluding food and energy prices, were more muted, up just 0.1% for the month and 3.8% from a year ago.

Existing home sales fell 3.6% in March, to a nine-month low, impacted by tight inventory and rising mortgage rates stemming from the Middle East fighting. The median price for an existing home increased 1.4% from a year ago, to $408.8K.

Initial jobless claims of 207K suggested little upward pressure on unemployment.

On Note

At the start of March, Fed funds futures were pricing in an ~80% chance of two Fed rate cuts by year end. Towards the end of March, fears of rising inflation resulted in markets briefly pricing in a nearly 44% chance of a Fed rate hike by year end. As of Friday, reflecting the improvement in investor sentiment regarding an end to the fighting, markets were pricing in a 50% chance of one rate cut by year end.

Market Indices (As of 04/17/2026)

S&P 500 4.5%
Small Caps 5.6%
Intl. Developed 2.2%
Intl. Emerging 3.2%
Commodities -0.4%
U.S. Bond Market 0.6%
10-Year Treas. Yield 4.25%
U.S. Dollar -0.6%
WTI Oil ($/bl) $84
Gold ($/oz) $4,849

The Week Ahead

  • Retail Sales
  • Pending Home Sales
  • Manufacturing PMI
  • Services PMI
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Initial Jobless Claims

Insights

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