Week in Review: October 10, 2025

October 14, 2025

Recap & Commentary

Markets ended the week lower on renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Friday saw the S&P 500 fall 2.7%, it’s the largest one-day decline since April, following a surprise announcement by President Trump that he intends to increase tariffs on Chinese goods by 100% “over and above” any existing tariffs, beginning November 1. If imposed, tariffs on Chinese imports would rise to 130%. The move came in response to China placing new export controls on rare earth minerals critical to the manufacturing of advanced computer chips and batteries used in a number of industries including tech, autos, and defense. With stock market valuations currently at elevated levels, markets could experience heightened volatility, unless the two sides move quickly to diffuse the current uptick in tensions.

After two years of fighting, Hamas and Israel accepted a peace agreement designed to bring an end to the current conflict. The first phase of the deal calls for Hamas to release all living and deceased Israeli hostages. In turn, Israel will release nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and allow aid trucks to enter the Gaza Strip. Ensuing phases of the 20-point peace agreement call for the disarmament of Hamas, an international coalition to oversee the rebuilding of the Gaza Strip, and an eventual two-state solution, one which does not include Hamas. Whether these objectives will ultimately be achieved remains to be seen but the current ceasefire between the two sides is a welcomed first step to ending the direct fighting between Israel and Hamas and defusing broader tensions within the Middle East.

Economic Commentary

Economic data remained limited due to the ongoing government shutdown.

Consumer sentiment data released by the University of Michigan showed that consumers’ views of the economy were little changed during the first half of October. That extended to inflation expectations where the five-year inflation outlook was unchanged at 3.7% while the one-year inflation outlook decreased slightly from 4.7% to 4.6%.

While not technically an economic data point, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, providing investors with greater insight into the committee’s discussions and deliberations regarding economic conditions and possible future monetary policy actions.

According to the minutes, members agreed that economic activity slowed during the first half of the year including labor market conditions, where job gains have slowed and unemployment has risen, and should no longer be described as “solid.” The discussion of inflation revealed various opinions as to the timing and ultimate effects of tariffs, however, a majority of participants indicated there remains upside risk to inflation. Regarding future monetary policy actions, most participants “judged that it likely would be appropriate to ease policy further over the remainder of the year.” Less clear, however is if that means one or two additional rate cuts, given the variety of opinions on the topic.

Of Note

According to industry group Cox Automotive, the average price for a new vehicle surpassed $50,000 last month for the first time, while total auto loan debt now stands at a record $1.66T according to the NY Federal Reserve Bank.

Market Indices (As of 10/10/2025)

S&P 500 -2.4%
Small Caps -3.3%
Intl. Developed -1.9%
Intl. Emerging -0.6%
Commodities -1.1%
U.S. Bond Market 0.3%
10-Year Treas. Yield 4.04%
U.S. Dollar 1.3%
WTI Oil ($/bl) $59
Gold ($/oz) $4,000

The Week Ahead

  • Consumer Inflation(CPI)
  • Produce Inflation (PPI)
  • Retail Sales
  • Housing Starts
  • Initial Jobless Claims
  • Small Business Optimism

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