Week in Review: May 1, 2026

May 4, 2026

Recap & Commentary

Markets ended a busy week higher with the S&P 500 closing at a new record. For the month of April, the S&P 500 jumped 10.4%, its largest monthly gain since November 2020. Events in the Middle East, the Fed’s April FOMC meeting, and earnings reports all vied for investors’ attention.

Events in the Middle East largely remained at a stalemate. Early in the week Iran submitted a proposal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz but did not address the country’s nuclear ambitions, garnering a tepid US response. Over the weekend, President Trump announced the US will begin to “guide” ships through the Strait of Hormuz this upcoming week. Still unclear is whether the US Navy will directly escort ships or if they will be guided by other means. On Sunday, two vessels near the Strait reported being attacked, keeping tension elevated.

As expected the Fed left rates unchanged at its April meeting. Three members who supported the action objected to the statement’s easing bias suggesting the possibility of further rate cuts in 2026. At his post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell addressed speculation about his future saying he intends to remain on the Board of Governors “for a period of time, to be determined” following the end of his term as Fed Chair. Powell later said he worries that the political attacks on the Fed are “battering this institution and putting at risk the things that really matter to the public,” the ability to conduct monetary policy free from political factors.

Through Friday, 63% of S&P 500 companies had reported 1Q26 earnings, with 84% of those companies beating their consensus estimate. According to industry group FactSet, consolidated earnings growth for 1Q26 is expected to be 27.1%, which if achieved, would mark the 6th consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth.

Economic Commentary

First quarter US economic activity grew a 2.0% annualized pace, up from the 0.5% rate recorded in 4Q25. Business spending was the dominant driver, up 8.7%, contributing 1.5% to the headline growth figure. Though there is no specific line item capturing business spending on AI, an extrapolation of the data suggests AI spending accounted for at least half of the 2.0% headline growth.

Core personal consumptions expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, rose 0.3% in March and 3.2% from a year ago. Both measures were inline with expectations and pointed towards upward pressure on inflation, stemming in part from the recent surge in energy prices.

According to industry group Institute for Supply Management (ISM), manufacturing activity expended at a modest pace in April, aided by a slight uptick in new orders. Input prices, jumped to their highest level since April 2022, reflecting higher energy prices. Employment contracted for the 15th consecutive month.

Durable good orders rose 0.8% in March following a 1.2% decline in February. Core business spending jumped 3.3%, the largest monthly gains since June 202, reflecting strong demand, possibly as businesses sought to take advantage of the Supreme Court’s February ruling striking down certain tariffs enacted by President Trump.

On Note

United Arab Emirates (UAE) announced its decision to leave OPEC effective May 1. The decision is unlikely to have an immediate impact on global energy prices as long as the Straight of Hormuz remains closed. The move was seen as the UAE wanting to pump more oil than it is currently allowed as an OPEC member. The move will likely lessen OPEC’s leverage to set/influence global energy prices in the future.

Market Indices (As of 05/01/2026)

S&P 500 0.9%
Small Caps 0.9%
Intl. Developed 0.9%
Intl. Emerging -0.5%
Commodities 3.1%
U.S. Bond Market -0.4%
10-Year Treas. Yield 4.38%
U.S. Dollar -0.4%
WTI Oil ($/bl) $102
Gold ($/oz) $4,645

The Week Ahead

  • April Employment Report
  • JOLTs Job Openings
  • ISM Services
  • New Home Sales
  • Consumer Sentiment
  • Initial Jobless Claims

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